Joined: 07 Feb 2007 {Posts: 1301 } Location: Lookin DC Metro, Feelin Geneva
Posted: Wed 15 Oct 2008 22:50 Post subject:
Obama will win by 54%+ which will be a landslide...it will be reminiscent of Reagan vs Carter in 1980.
The proof is in the polling data, not just current polls but the trend line, especially in the swing states, 3 weeks out I can't think of a presidential candidate who was down 6-10 points who recovered. Can you?
If you click on National or a State name it will show you all the polls for that category and also the trend.
McCain is finished. The day he picked Palin and the day he said the "economy was fundamentally strong" was the day he went down.
blue collar low brow types are all over Palin, but he has functionally lost most of the neo-cons, the Republican intellectuals...you can see that the outcry from them in almost every major newspaper.
McCain could have won this, he had a good chance and he gave it away and Obama is running with it.
McCain wanted Lieberman but he was scared to alienate his base because Lieberman is only hawkish on foreign policy issues related to Israel, other than that he is a left leaning moderate. McCain was already on thin ice with Christian Conservatives for not expressing the proper amount of radical populist Christianity.
He picked Palin because he thought he could have his cake and eat it to. He tried to play identity politics by picking a white woman to try to syphone off alienated female centrist Clinton supporters but felt he could keep his base by picking a right wing Christian/pro-lifer.
What he did with his affirmative action token pick was alienate and insult many women and actually increased the number of women who supported Obama. It seems that Palin did resonate with many white males, but reality is that Obama does not need a majority of white males to win the election and no Democrat has won a majority of white males since what? Truman?
Reality is the Republicans are, for the most part a white male identity political party and have been that way since Nixon. They are slowly becoming a right wing religious right/"low information" white male party as that wing (the Palin wing) has alienated and pushed out many traditional Republican (like George HW Bush, like David Brookes, and they are even attacking Peggie Noonan, etc) out of the party. The days of Nixon, Bush sr, etc are gone.
Reagan made sure that if you aren't "born again", anti-abortion, and able to act like "a good ol' boy" you can't be a successful nominee of the Repubs. That is far too narrow a platform to run on and that will be increasingly true. It is also a narrow pool of viable candidates. McCain, in reality was the best pick the Republicans could put up...Romney might have been better, but that is only in hindsight due to the economic crisis...without that Obama would have trounced him...he is wooden and can't connect (as was shown in the primaries).
Most Hispanics vote Democrat
Most blacks vote Democrat
Most Asians vote Democrat
~40% of whites routinely vote Democrat
Most white women tend to learn Democratic as well.
As Hispanics increase, if current trends hold, the less whites (males) you will need to win an election in the Democrat party. If blacks, Hispanics, and liberal whites can hold that coalition, the Republicans will be defunct in 15 years and unable to win the Presidency, unless they radically change or split into a workable group.
If they returned to a fiscally conservative/foreign policy hawkish group and minimized the religious right they might have a chance and be able to draw more candidates...but I doubt that will happen. The religious righ thas money and the ability to organize, they won George W the election twice.
Last edited by Dragon Horse on Thu 16 Oct 2008 12:28; edited 1 time in total
According to this guy Obama will win in a landslide, I am not as optomistic as him though but I think he is not far off.
I will predict right now, on Nov 5th, the final tally...
Obama 353
McCain 185
This is what happened because McCain had such weakness in his base he needed to fire it up but he also lost independents because he straight scared some folks with Palin and his erratic campaigning.
The financial crisis was the coup de grace.
When McCain goes back to the Senate he better practice saying President Obama. I know it will not roll easily off his lips...guess he needs to join a support group with Hillary and Bill Clinton.
To me sitting back it is amazing that a black guy (by Obama's choice of definition) who came from obscurity, from an odd background, with a foreign Muslim (well atheist, but with a Muslim background) father from Africa, raised in Hawaii, with no military experience, unknown internationally before 4 years prior, with a Muslim Swahili name will most likely be President of the United States.
If you told me this in 2001, especially after 9/11 I would assume you were joking or mentally ill. To be honest I still can't comprehend it.
For Obama to overcome that and even remotely connect with white Americans in states like Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, New Mexico, and Colorado against someone like John McCain (war hero, senior Senator of well over a decade) is not only unlikely but I believe it speaks very highly of the campaign Obama has won and him as an individual. There are definately not many people who could pull that off.
Add in he graduated summa cum laude from Harvard Law School, from Columbia, did not grow up with a father, barely got into a prep-school but for the grace of his grandfather's boss (according to his book)...
I thought Clinton's story was amazing..(well in Modern times, it was not amazing compared to someone like Lincoln or Andrew Jackson)...but Clinton was still a white Southern WASP (which means he gets the benefit of the doubt in many situations).
Joined: 07 Feb 2007 {Posts: 1301 } Location: Lookin DC Metro, Feelin Geneva
Posted: Thu 16 Oct 2008 13:45 Post subject:
After the debate last night, McCain's best in my opinion, I think polls will tighten a little, but then again they almost always tighten at the end of a campaign...still my suspicion is a good percentage of the undecided won't vote or will vote for someone else..this will favor Obama.
I think mcCain was just out to please his base and try to scare people...my guess is he was aiming at older voters who he is running almost even with Obama for...this is bad for McCain. Older voters are more easily influenced by smear campaigns, I think, especially if a black person is a candidate, because I think many of these people (over 65) are holding their nose to support Obama out of desperation.
All in all, I think McCain helped himself some but it was not a game changer, and with 19 days left he is still in trouble.
This is what I got from Fox News last night, which I watched for a conservative perspective, most of the undecideds (I think all of them actually) who made a decision on a candidate went for Obama. That was shocking to me to be honest. THis verifies the above to me.
From CBS:
Quote:
And tonight's results have, by a wide margin, made it a clean sweep. Here are the final results of the survey of 638 uncommitted voters:
Fifty-three percent of the uncommitted voters surveyed identified Democratic nominee Barack Obama as the winner of tonight's debate. Twenty-two percent said Republican rival John McCain won. Twenty-five percent saw the debate as a draw.
More uncommitted voters trusted Obama than McCain to make the right decisions about health care. Before the debate, sixty-one percent of uncommitted voters said that they trust Obama on the issue; after, sixty-eight percent said so. Twenty-seven percent trusted McCain to manage health care before the debate; thirty percent said so afterwards.
Sixty-four percent think Obama will raise their taxes, while fifty percent think McCain will.
Before the debate, fifty-four percent thought Obama shared their values. That percentage rose to sixty-four percent after the debate. For McCain, fifty-two percent thought he shared their values before the debate, and fifty-five percent thought so afterwards.
Before the debate, fifty percent said they trusted Obama to handle a crisis; that rose to sixty-three percent afterwards. More uncommitted voters trusted McCain on this – seventy-eight percent before the debate, eighty-two percent after the debate.
But more trusted Obama than McCain to make the right decisions about the economy. Before the debate, fifty-four percent of uncommitted voters said that they trust Obama to make the right decisions about the economy; after, sixty-five percent said that. Before, thirty-eight percent trusted McCain to do so, and forty-eight percent did after the debate.
Before the debate, sixty-six percent thought Obama understands voters’ needs and problems; that rose to seventy-six percent after the debate. For McCain, thirty-six percent felt he understands voters’ needs before the debate, and forty-eight percent thought so afterwards.
We will have a full report on the poll later on. Uncommitted voters are those who don't yet know who they will vote for, or who have chosen a candidate but may still change their minds.
I still don't plan to vote for either of the Liberals - McCain or Obama.
However, I will be rooting for the Republicans to earn enough sets to prevent a 60 member filliabuster proof Senate. But even if every Repub is driven out of office, expect the Democrats to daddle while Rome is burning. I'm sure they will do nothing more than to make sure we all have gov't subsidized healthcare, higher taxes, money wasted to stop global warming, higher gas prices, legal abortion, legal illegals, and gay marriage to comfort ourselves with...LOL!
If Obama wins, people will be happy for about 1 year until reality sinks in. AAs will be proud for a moment, but then even they, will have to return to the real world of one's life consisting of the choices one's made (and not 'racism'). The tax bills will come home to roost. Pres. Obama will be still be a smooth operator who relies heavily on others for his policy decisions. Expect his National Security Advisor and Secretary of State to do alot of traveling in his absence. An Obama Presidency will be better than Carter's, but not quite as 'good as' Clinton's.
If McCain wins, it won't be McSame. The troops have already started coming home, so Iraq will be a non-issue in the forseable future. Expect higer taxes and probably an attack on Iran, lol. Hmm, he will probably be out helping the rich once more and won't have much time for tv appearances and interviews. Expect gas prices to stabalize with the drilling off-shore with Palin as the new Czar of Oil, lol. Hmm, expect more protests on tv as the Liberals will increasingly beome unhinged at their loss. At least the Mexicans will enjoy their time on his watch, lol.
Whomever wins will have to tackle the economy, and they will probably fail. Look for a one term Presidency of either candidate.
My prediction:
If Obama loses, all hail Hillary 2012. If McCain loses, expect the Republican Party to go next with a hard core right of Center Reagan candidate next time.
Last edited by Melani23 on Tue 04 Nov 2008 14:25; edited 1 time in total
Joined: 07 Feb 2007 {Posts: 1301 } Location: Lookin DC Metro, Feelin Geneva
Posted: Thu 16 Oct 2008 15:41 Post subject:
Well I agree with one thing. If McCain loses...Romney will be coming up strong, and converting to SOuthern Baptist quick (lol).
I think it will be a one term presidency only if the economy is bad in 2012.
If the economy is bad for two years...Obama can hold people off by saying he has to clean up Bush's mess, if it recovers to a better point then when he took office, he will likley be reelected.
This happened to Clinton and Reagan. DUring Reagan's first term, for the first 2 years or so the economy was horrible...Clinton came in during a light recession as well.
I think Obama's biggest accomplishment will be ending the IRaq war and national health care...those are the things he will be known for...and he can do it with a Dem controlled Senate/House.
WHo knows what else will happen...never know. I just hope Obama doesn't get caught with
Joined: 07 Feb 2007 {Posts: 1301 } Location: Lookin DC Metro, Feelin Geneva
Posted: Tue 04 Nov 2008 13:34 Post subject:
Karl Rove's last election map, he is predicting an Obama win...
I would add that George might tip...why? Could be due to the independent candidate who is running from their state. I do not believe Obama will win Ohio, but as all of you can see he does not need to. In fact he can lose FLorida and Ohio and still win comfortably...he has indeed changed the map, exactly how his campaign kept stating during the primaries. If he does win by such a large number as Rov predicts Democrats will take it as a mandate and a few folks on this board will be seeking professional psychiatric care in the next year.
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But even if every Repub is driven out of office, expect the Democrats to daddle while Rome is burning. 
I'm sure they will do nothing more than to make sure we all have gov't subsidized healthcare, higher taxes, money wasted to stop global warming, higher gas prices, legal abortion, legal illegals, and gay marriage to comfort ourselves with...LOL! 
